Tyche
An honest measure of what predicting a lottery draw is worth, not a promise to win.
Tyche downloads the entire SuperEnalotto draw history since December 1997 — over 4,260 draws — and walks it through four steps: Archive checks that the data is clean, Proof tests the draws against five independence hypotheses, Validation compares every method against chance with walk-forward backtests, and Forecast delivers the final play, from TimesFM 3.0 or three reference methods, together with what it costs and what it's worth.
The tests give a clear answer: the draws are independent, and every method — including a 330-million-parameter forecasting model — scores 0.4 hits out of six in backtesting, exactly what chance gives. The one statistical anomaly it did find, a skew in the sum of the six numbers, turns out to have faded away years ago and was never economically exploitable anyway.
Tyche uses Google's TimesFM 3.0 to forecast the archive's ninety time series, split into groups of 32 because that's the most the model accepts at once. The program itself is AGPL v3 with no commercial license and no CLA; TimesFM 3.0's model weights, a separate thing from the code, remain non-commercial under their own license.
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PlatformDesktop — Windows, macOS, Linux
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EngineTimesFM 3.0 + three reference methods
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PathArchive → Proof → Validation → Forecast
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Result0.4 hits out of six, same as chance
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LicenseAGPL v3
Tyche was the Greek goddess of fortune and chance, dispensing success or ruin unpredictably. The name is almost a preemptive admission: the program exists to measure how much of fortune can actually be predicted, and its own analysis concludes the answer is close to none.
- Downloads and checks the integrity of the entire SuperEnalotto history since 1997
- Runs the draws through five independence and uniformity tests
- Backtests every method against chance walk-forward, without ever peeking at the future
- Measures the validation's sensitivity against known, dial-in advantages
- Generates the play from TimesFM 3.0 or three reference methods, the random one included
- Computes exact cost and odds for a single ticket or integral systems up to twelve numbers
The application interface is in Italian.
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